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Thursday, February 07, 2013

2015 General Election

The keen-eyed and eared amongst you will have noticed that the campaign for the 2015 general election has recently begun in earnest.

You know where I stand - I am a Tory.  A modern and liberal one.  Yes - there are different types!

I have been musing over possible results.

The preferred option for me, is of course a Conservative majority.  So we can finish off fixing the country's problems and the economy and all enjoy the benefits of a lot of hard work and painful, necessary decisions (inequality down in this government so far).

It doesn't look likely though.

Preference number two is a Conservative and Liberal coalition   I think this is even less likely as the Liberals will probably dump old Cleggy at their 2014 autumn conference and have a leftie as leader.

There are other parties that a minority Conservative government could in theory govern with - the greens?  If anyone voted for them.  Or UKIP.  Though they would actually have to have some MPs.  The Winfield Party is about as likely to get MPs than them two though.

A minority government of any persuasion would not likely last too long before another election is called.

It seemed bizarre 5 years ago to think of any coalition government - so how about a Tory-Labour coalition (which I did suggest in 2010)?  It would never happen with the Eds in charge but again what if Labour dump Red Ed and go for his more sensible brother, David Millipede   With someone else vaguely sensible like Alan Johnson as shadow chancellor they could be able to work together.

Stranger things have happened.

Then we get to the bad options - a Lib-Lab coalition.  5 years of making difficult decisions and actually governing may help the Liberals to make sense in such an awful-sounding coalition.

And finally, Labour could get a majority.  Which sadly is probably the most likely outcome.  The really bad thing is that they will likely get to reap the rewards of an improving economy from all the hard work of the Conservatives - a la 1997 to 2001.  Though when Labour did get back in in 1997, they did actually run the economy well for the first 4 years, continuing the previous Conservative government's plans.

At some point they would of course fuck up the economy because that is what socialists do - spend other people's money.  It was 2002 when Gordon Brown started destroying the economy in style - and don't we know it right now.

One could argue though that they have so messed up the economy, and despite their bullshit of "oh it was a global recession"...so exactly how much did GDP reduce in Australia, China, Russia, Vietnam, South America, Canada, Africa, Iraq? - erm, it didn't...just in profligate near-bankrupt Western countries...erm back to the point James, they may actually realise how much they messed it up that they are so scarred they could actually run it well.

Except the markets would not likely think like that.  The markets would freak out and probably significantly increase borrowing costs, thereby increasing the deficit and debt even further to the point of actual bankruptcy.  The opposite of what they have done since 2010 by reducing interest rates on 10 year government bonds to that comparable to Germany, currently around 1.8%.

Meanwhile after 2015, Cameron is kicked out as Tory leader (assuming he even makes it to 2015!) and Boris becomes the new leader ready to take over and bring us into the glorious 2020's.

So whatever happens in 2015 is in one way or another, a good option for us Tories.