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Thursday, April 07, 2011

Updated Weather Forecast

You probably heard that the UK had the warmest 6th April on record the other day at 23.5'C.  It reached 21.1'C here in sunny Reading.  Not bad at all.

Records have been beaten all over Europe - see the below chart






This is due to the forecasted very significant plume of hot air from Africa that I mentioned more than a couple of weeks ago now.

Current patterns do remind me of 2003 and 2006 - two of the best summers we have had in recent years.  Given trends over the last few years, I am not getting too excited yet, but this is a good sign.

If we don't get significant rain in May and/or June though, I will not be so hopeful for the summer.

For now we have a few days of much warmer than average temperatures (we can expect about 12'C this time of year), then back to average.

Friday sees high pressure right over the UK, it should be glorious, just a tad less warm at about 19'C.
Saturday will be sunny again, though perhaps some more cloud in the afternoon, warm again at about 19'C.
Sunday may be quite cloudy, but there should be some sunny intervals.  There could also be a shower.  Depending on sunshine amounts, 17'C to 20'C.
The warm air should hang on until Monday, but increasingly cloudy, and a small chance of a light shower, 18'C.
Tuesday will be much fresher, but it may be sunnier again, 14'C.
Wednesday I currently expect to be fair, with a shower or two, 13'C.
Thursday also fair, with a shower or two, 13'C.

Normally, I would place bets on it remaining cool and unsettled for the rest of the month but with the amount of hot air pushed up from Africa remaining to our south, it wouldn't take that much for it to warm up again towards the end of the month.