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Thursday, December 23, 2010

Updated Weather Forecast

You probably won't be surprised that I am going to mention the word 'cold' in this forecast.  I keep having these expectations of mild weather but I am being constantly surprised at how the mild air is getting over-run by the entrenched cold.  I haven't known anything like it so, apologies for being wrong when I said it would be milder during the second half of December.  The cold is just so unprecedented for recent times that I have not been able to appreciate fully.  There is talk that this might end up being the coldest December in the UK since 1910.  We could also end up recording the coldest Christmas Day ever.

Friday will see high pressure building, probably some sunshine, albeit very weak, it might get to -1'C, maybe even 0'C, but -6'C overnight.
Christmas Day will be similar, dry, about -2'C and maybe -8'C overnight.
Sunday the theme continues but the difference being a southerly wind will pick up - this is a warm direction.  Therefore during the day it might reach -1'C and overnight maybe even 0'C!  Woohoo!

This is preceding a band of rain coming from the west, which will turn to snow.  It will make only slow and erratic progress in crossing the country, during Monday and will probably take most of Tuesday to clear away.  Most places will see some snow from this, but some places in the west could get a huge dump of snow - I'm thinking Devon, West Wales, Cumbria, though equally it could melt quite quickly due to rising temperatures.  Further east it probably will just be a small covering of snow and staying cold.

Cornwall may reach 11'C - Reading probably by this point about 1'C.

From then it is quite uncertain what will happen - the favoured outcome at the moment would be high pressure building from the east, bringing lots of dry weather and frost for around the new year.  Not exceptionally cold but certainly below average.

The models leave me confused as to whether we then get a renewed Arctic blast or mild and wet weather from the south west.

Looking at the winters that are well remembered for huge amounts of snow, like 1947 and 1963, before the snow, they seem to have had high pressure building over the UK.

So I do suggest that that this may be a respite before something really snowy gets going during January and into February.  That is what I am inclined to think.  I think that I could conclude that we have had a severe spell of wintriness, but that I ain't seen nothing yet.

We shall see.