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Thursday, December 02, 2010

Updated Weather Forecast

I take the plaudits for predicting last night's snow a week ago.  Thank you.

It is going to get colder.  Then less cold.  Then colder.

It might get down to -9'C tonight.  -7'C more likely.  Then not above -3'C tomorrow.  But sunny.  Ouch.

Friday night and more likely the early hours of Saturday will see a band of something come across.  More likely rain but as it could be -5'C when it starts, then this will freeze immediately.  It might turn to snow, it might even be snow all along but that is the least likely option.  Saturday should then be fine and mild at a whole 1'C.  There may be some more rain, or sleet or possibly snow overnight.

Sunday then sees a battle of two air masses start - a mild air mass over France trying to push up, and a cold pool from the Arctic trying to come down.  Sunday itself should be fine, 0'C, maybe -3'C overnight.

In fact the whole week should be fine.  Neither previously mentioned air mass will actually win.  Instead, high pressure will become dominant - the one from the Atlantic which has been blocking the usual weather systems.  Only slight chance is a band of snow to the south on Tuesday but it remains a very small chance.

Temperatures next week will generally be about 0'C during the day, a few degrees under overnight.  It may be foggy at times, and certainly frosty.

I always expected December to be surprisingly mild - ie after a cold end to November and start to the month.

I expect temperatures of 10'C before Christmas and I think the odds of a white Christmas are tiny.  I think Christmas will be mild and wet.

Maybe a brief cold incursion over the New Year then some wind and rain for the first part of January.  People will wonder if winter is over.

From the second half of January and especially into February, I think the winter will return with a vengeance, though perhaps not the record-breaking cold, I can see lots of snow for the whole country.  I will be very surprised if this is not the case.

Stranger things have happened - but there you have it, my winter forecast.

And while we are on the subject, I am still expecting a dry and cool spring - at least until May.

I'm hoping for a dry summer too, but not expecting a particularly hot one.  But that is way too far off for me to have any degree of certainty with, it is just a current guess.