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Thursday, November 25, 2010

Updated Weather Forecast

I guess you want to know - will it snow?

I bet you will love my answer - I don't know.  There is however a substantial chance of a major snowfall next Tuesday - more about that later.

For now:

Tonight, maybe the tiniest of snow flurries, like about 5 flakes, -3'C.
Friday, again, maybe a tiny snow flurry, probably cloudy, 3'C, maybe down to -5'C overnight.
Saturday, the previously expected low pressure hasn't developed hardly at all, that said I think there will be some bands of light snow around, so a 70% chance of a slight covering, 1'C, maybe -3'C overnight.
Sunday, perhaps a 40% chance of a little light snow again, 2'C, -5'C overnight.
Monday, 30% chance of a snow flurry or two, 3'C, -3'C overnight.

Now Tuesday is where it gets interesting.  A low pressure is set to develop over the Bay of Biscay, and move towards the south of England.  It depends on how it develops as to the likelihood of snow, but I reckon there is an 70% chance of heavy snow, perhaps up to 20cm, especially in the afternoon, with gale force winds making it a real blizzard.  There is a smaller chance of a light snow event, and a small chance it could be sleet rather than snow.  And 0'C all day.

I strongly recommend you keep an eye out for this.

Currently, I think there is a good chance that it will turn back to rain either overnight on Tuesday or into Wednesday, so it will melt quickly.

So, Wednesday if Tuesday happens like I think most likely (but far from guaranteed), then it will remain cold with a gale force easterly still, however I think upper air temperatures will be too warm for snow, and hence it could rain.  Potentially could see some flooding as well due to snow melt followed by heavy rain.

Thursday, low pressure moves away - I wouldn't be surprised if there was a little snow on the back edge, colder, 2'C.

And from there on is anyone's guess but it looks like remaining cold.

I am, believe it or not, going for a milder than average December!  Once the cold clears away.

I'll probably do another forecast over the weekend if I can get more certainty on what exactly is going to happen on Tuesday.