Adverts

Tuesday, November 02, 2010

Met Office Predicts Mild Winter - I Don't

The Met Office last year predicted a milder than average winter, and has done so again this year - or more like their £33million supercomputer has - as they are too scared to issue a long-range weather forecast this year as they kept getting them wrong in recent years.

I do agree with them though that the winter is quite likely to be drier than average.

This so-called super-computer does not take into account such factors as the El Nino-La Nina high-low pressure system in the Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Oscillation.

I have no such computer system - I rely on around 15 years of studying weather patterns and historical weather patterns, and try to take into account as many factors as possible such that I have a fair understanding of their likely impact.

I repeat that I so far expect a milder and drier December than average, colder January and February with some snow though probably less than last year - though it might actually be colder than last year.

I am currently expecting a drier than average Spring, and cooler than average, at least for March and April anyway.

I shall update in December with more detail with regards to expecting timings of cold weather, I hope, for which I was pretty successful with last winter.

***

Following an e-mail from the Met Office Press Officer, I should point out that this is just an interpretation from the media based on probability maps on their website (I did not realise this at time of posting).

I cannot locate said probability maps, however I have a link to the statement.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20101028.html

***

Probability maps:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/specialist/seasonal/probability/glob_seas_prob.html