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Thursday, September 23, 2010

Updated Weather Forecast

It really does frustrate me when I think I know the weather pattern for the next couple of weeks, and then a couple of the models I follow suggest a bizarre outcome which I haven't seen emerging which questions my judgement.  The model in particular which has thrown me, comes out every 6 hours and it is not guaranteed to be perfect as I believe they are taken from flights into weather systems, etc, and data can and does go wrong, what is called, an outlier.


This is possibly the most rubbish forecast I have...I cannot even find the words for it.

Friday as I previously expected will have the remnants of this low pressure system, so maybe more rain at times but a bit of sun too - but hello - quite a temperature difference from a couple of days ago.  24'C to 12'C?

The northerly wind will not feel pleasant!  It should be fairly dry this weekend, but chilly at night.

Once the wind subsides, temperatures may recover to about 15'C from Sunday onwards.  But I really don't know what the weather will do.

I was projecting high pressure building both from the north-east, and the south-west, and then merging, with low pressure cells travelling above the UK.  But no, it appears a low pressure cell may get stuck between the high pressures - right over the UK.  It seems bizarre.

I will give an update tomorrow.

I am not proud of this forecast.

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I'm sticking to the original plan that I stated last Monday, high pressure to build, for a few days but not over us, so it will be weak, and perhaps quite a cloudy high, so not warmer than 15'C.  Maybe some light rain on Sunday afternoon or Monday morning.

Probably more unsettled later in the week I think.