Friday, September 17, 2010

Updated Weather Forecast

Yes I know it is late, and recent ones haven't been as accurate as I would have liked.  I have two things to say to you:

The Internet Gestapo
Gypsy Curses

These I believe, are affecting my weather forecasting abilities, in various ways.

At least the cold snap I had forecast, and I'm sure I had mentioned a mid-September cold snap a month or so ago, albeit I did expect it originally around the 20th (blame the record-breaking hurricane season for making it come quicker), has arrived.

It won't last too long though, as yes, you guessed it, hurricanes are at work.  Specifially Igor and Julia I think which are going to join forces in the Atlantic and head towards Greenland (unless something odd happens?) and the impact of this will drag more tropical feeling air through Europe and up into England next week, on a south-easterly - which is pretty damn unusual.  Of course, hurricanes being of the unpredictable nature that they are, this forecast could all go to pot, but this is by far the most likely scenario.

Details, mere details.

Saturday, chilly but sunny start, more cloud later, 16'C
Sunday, cloudy, probably some bits of rain, 18'C
Monday, I think fair, chance of showery rain still though, 18 or 20'C depending on sunshine amounts.
Tuesday and Wednesday I reckon will be glorious, 22'C!  Well, perhaps.  My confidence is not very high but I think this is the most likely solution.
I don't rule out the odd thunderstorm or downpour either.

I'm guessing high pressure will then build towards the end of the month, and October may even start mild.

October will end stormy, that I am pretty damn certain of.  November - perhaps a cold snap at first then fairly unremarkable.  December I still fancy to be noted for its mildness, though probably quite wet.

And winter?  If you had asked me 6-12 months ago, I would have told you it was almost certain that we would have an even colder winter than 2009-10.  Now I am not so sure, thanks to La Nina and the very active hurricane season.  We may revert back to one of the winters we got used to 5-10 years ago - mild and wet.  Europe will almost certainly have a very harsh winter though.  I think it is 50-50 which way it will go now.  I'm on the case, I want to know too.