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Thursday, August 26, 2010

Updated Weather Forecast

There is a bit of a lack of detail this time due to my current work and accommodation situation which is hampering my research efforts, however I am currently expecting an improving picture over the weekend.

I think the worst of the rain is over, there may be some more tonight, there could be the odd shower over the weekend, but it will be predominantly dry and fine over the weekend, though noticeably cooler than you would expect, probably no higher than 19’C and could be quite chilly overnight.

From then on, I am expecting that high pressure that has been pushed over us will build to an extent and the Atlantic depressions, coupled with the remnants of tropical storms/hurricanes could then stall to our west and suck up warmer air for a period.

So we could actually end up with a week of summer, during the early part of September, with sunshine and temperatures above 25’C.

I’m hopeful for a reasonable September – kind of similar to June perhaps, with interspersed cool and warm spells, but predominantly dry – in preparation for a wild autumn perhaps?

It isn’t so set in stone as the track of major hurricanes can have a significant influence, and they are notoriously difficult to predict in advance.

But overall, an improving picture.

I’ve also done some more research into why my expected July heatwave didn’t occur in the UK, and consequently why Russia had such a severe heatwave, and it seems that it is down to an unusual jetstream pattern. I like to follow the jetstream projections but I do not have a huge amount of experience so I am not always sure how to connect it to future weather events, like I do pressure charts.

Going into more detail, jetstream patterns are influenced it seems by sea surface temperatures and the anomolies between them. A little more complex than I am currently able to understand in full. I’ll keep working on it.

If you want to know more, click the link, which shows the source of my research.

That’s all for now.